Risk-Free Simulator

Trade-Up Contract Simulator

Test your trade-up contracts risk-free. Select 10 skins, see every possible outcome, and simulate the trade-up before risking your real inventory.

0/10

Skins Selected

0

Outcomes

+$0.00

Expected Value

Select Input Rarity

Choose the rarity of skins you want to trade up

Input Skins (0/10)

Click a slot to add a skin

Total Value:

$0.00

Slot 1

Slot 2

Slot 3

Slot 4

Slot 5

Slot 6

Slot 7

Slot 8

Slot 9

Slot 10

Possible Outcomes

Add skins to see possible outcomes

Add skins to see possible outcomes

Select 10 more skins to trade up

How Trade-Up Contracts Work

Master the mechanics to maximize your profits

Select Input Skins

Choose 10 skins of the same rarity. The collections they belong to determine which outcomes are possible. Mixing collections increases outcome variety — use this strategically.

Analyze Outcomes

Review all possible outcomes and their values. The expected value (EV) tells you whether the trade-up is profitable on average. A positive EV means profit over many trades.

Execute Trade-Up

One random outcome is selected from the pool. In-game, CS2 uses a weighted system based on float values and collection overlap. Compare input vs output to see your profit or loss.

Track & Optimize

Use this simulator to test hundreds of combinations risk-free. Find the optimal input combinations with the highest EV before committing your real skins.

Standard Trade-Up

Trade 10 skins of the same rarity to receive 1 skin of the next higher rarity. The outcome is randomly selected from the collections of your input skins.

Knife/Gloves Trade-Up

Retake Update

Trade 5 Covert skins for a chance at Knives or Gloves! This special trade-up was added with the CS2 Retake Update — previously impossible.

Trade-Up Strategy Guide

Pro tips to maximize your expected value

Single Collection Focus

Using skins from one collection limits outcomes to that collection's next tier. Great when the next tier has only expensive skins.

Low Risk

Float Value Matters

In-game, the output float is influenced by input floats. Lower float inputs generally produce lower float outputs — important for Factory New trades.

Advanced

EV Calculation

Always check expected value. Sum all possible outcome values, divide by number of outcomes, then subtract your total input cost. Positive = profitable.

Essential

Minimize Downside

Look for trade-ups where even the worst outcome retains most of your input value. Avoid all-or-nothing bets unless odds strongly favor you.

Risk Management

Buy Low, Trade High

Purchase input skins when market prices dip. Cheaper inputs = higher potential profit margin on the same trade-up outcome pool.

Economy

Volume Strategy

With positive EV trade-ups, doing more trades approaches the mathematical expectation. One trade is a gamble; 100 trades is statistics.

Pro Tip

Rarity Tier Reference

Understanding the CS2 skin rarity hierarchy

Consumer

Industrial

Mil-Spec

Restricted

Classified

Covert

Trade-ups produce skins one tier higher. Covert skins trade up to Knives/Gloves (since the Retake Update).

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know about trade-up contracts

Related Tools