Case EV & ROI Calculator

Expected value is the average return you should expect per case open over a huge sample size. Multiply each rarity odds by the average skin value in that tier, then sum the results. Compare EV to the case + key cost to get ROI.

Valve sets case odds so the long-run average return is below the case + key cost. Short-term lucky sessions can profit, but the expected ROI of opening is typically negative. Investing unopened cases can be a different strategy.

Yes — the rarity odds used here match the widely documented CS:GO/CS2 case odds (roughly 79.92% blue, 15.98% purple, 3.2% pink, 0.64% red, 0.26% gold). Actual skin values still depend on market prices and float/wear.

The simulator samples rarity tiers with official odds and uses your average value per tier. It models luck variance, not every individual skin in a collection. Use it to understand streaks, not to guarantee profit.